I have rules to protect myself from myself.

I just posted up yesterdays trades on my scalping page and wrote a small piece about the days trading which I’ve copied here for those that aren’t interested in my trades. It wasn’t a good day. At least today was a BE day, hopefully putting the brakes on.

Monday 26 Jan

I should really only analyse this day in one way. It should never happen again. I shouldn’t have been trading. I’d just finished my block of 4 night shifts this morning and got 4 hours sleep, I was tired, my mind numb in a daze, it’s always like this even if I get more hours sleep on the first day after nights. I was exhausted and out of control. I’m going to set up a new page on this site on ‘trading rules’, a list of rules that I will repeat over and over. Rule 1, don’t open the charts on the afternoon of my first day after night shifts. Aka, don’t trade when exhausted, tired, full of flu, got shit on my mind etc. I will probably need some do’s and don’ts to add to this rule. It must be set to memory, become a mantra, repeated over and over. As Hubert Senters said on the traderspodcast, ” I have rules to protect myself from myself.”

”What to say when you talk to yourself.” by Shad Helmstetter, comes to mind. A book I read a few years ago.

A while back I went to a bar on my first evening after a block of night shifts. I’d only had a couple of pints. I was sat on my own, mulling over some things. And then I was chucked out of the bar. The Smithfield, in Derby. I’d been talking to myself. I’d lost control in a state of exhaustion. Pity I wasn’t repeating my new rule over and over. It would have saved me today.

Free Forex education. No thanks I’d rather pay. At least I can say I’ve been done, when it doesn’t work.

Today at the end of traderAllen’s free forex chat session he left us with this comment,

Tue Jan 13, 4:12:42pm

allenbary: It seems funny, but I do kind of wonder sometime, I probably out trade most people, I trade month over month with over 92% accuracy. Yet with the hundreds of hits I get on my website, videos and forums. Very few ever take the time to pay attention.

There was about 4 people watching the chat session, although there is normally 1 or 2 more. On the forum there are 57 members who have joined up and only 17 have visited in January making 40 absentee’s this month. I don’t usually comment on the chat, as I’d rather listen and learn. If I’m in work on the day, then I go back with the charts printed off, making any relevant notes on from the chat. The forum I visit every day and contribute  when I feel it is relevant. It’s an unbelieveable free service Allen is giving, that few appear to want to get involved in. Maybe they would rather pay someone because they feel that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Who know’s, maybe I was once like them.

Anyway I’m trading off the 70 tick charts with the 20 ema on the free ninjatrader platform that I have obtained via traderAllen’s forum. I also have the 5 min chart up on ninja to confirm the trend direction with the 25 ema, partly because I’m presently half way through Bob Volman’s new book.

I’m using trading view for my longer term time frame analysis. I was paying £9/month for the multichart function but have now obtained that for free. I use tradingview because of the ease of using its drawing functions and the length of backdata that I have. The monthly charts go back to 1972! I like the idea of getting the longer term charts trend directions lined up. traderAllen does this to determine risk per trade and so do several other notable educators. Shonn Campbell in his new book, ” Inventory Trading,” uses multi timeframe trend analysis as part of his routine. I thought I would mention Shonn,  as in his book he mentions scalping his way out of losing trades and I’m hoping for us scalpers, he would go into more detail about this.

Anyway after playing around with the sim on ninja for a month, today I put on my first live trade with my old broker Oanda. I think I will eventually join up with MBTrading aswell as I’ve obtained the ninja software via the demo account. Also up on my screen is the ninja time and sales and the MBT level II which plays a big part in traderAlenn’s scalping and which I’m yet really to use effectively.

Here’s my tradingview set up. The stocc oscillator is only to point out divergence and give more confidence in a change of direction. Fibs are taken from the days swings to determine where the fib bots are coming in. Trend lines are put on the charts rather than ma’s, and notable points of support and resistance also.

ScreenHunter_01 Jan. 13 17.32

 

Here’s my trading screen set up.

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The Oanda 30 sec chart is only there to monitor my in trade position, hidden behind the 70 tick chart as was this scalp in the London session.

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From now on I’ll be journalling my progress. Don’t expect too much at once. Allen says get the month done for break even to start with. It’ more important to preserve capital than to take too many risks.

Cheers.

I’m outta here.

Holiday promotions etc.

First thing to note is anyone wanting to purchase or upgrade ninjatrader needs to be quick as their holiday promotion ends on the 19th Dec.

Steve W of the free site nbt has set out a series of lectures that he is charging for this time at his new site fxanalytics.com . Here’s the link to nobrainertrades summary of the lectures and you can link to the new site from it also, http://www.nobrainertrades.com/lecture-series-support  I’ve been through every article written at nbt and this lecture series looks interesting. Again there is a seasonal offer on up to Jan so get in quickly $467 instead of $537.

I’ve always wanted at least to go through Robin Hood and Little John’s course at http://forextraderoom.net/ and have never got around to it but the traderoom is well recommended by Shonn Campbell author of Inventory Trading http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00Q389K40 . There’s no rush though as after exploring for any seasonal offers, they appear to have an all year round thing for new participants of 3 months for 2 at $297.

For those looking for a new trading computer in the US, Eddie Z  at tradingcomputersnow.com has a promotion on holiday promotion sale . Eddie has been twice highlighted on the traderspodcast with Rob Booker in episodes 291 and 315, and since mentioned by traderAllen on his forum  at http://www.wallstreet2easystreet.com/   On a similar note, here in the UK there’s  a Christmas sale going on at http://www.tradingcomputers.co.uk/TCdesktop.html

Not a lot here, but if I could afford it I would purchase from all the above mentioned sites. As I can’t afford it I will make do with Shonn’s new book, Bob Volman’s new book and all the free advice from traderAllen and Rob Booker.

Cheers. I’m outa here.

 

 

Keeping the progress going.

I’m cheating a little here, copying and posting my latest post on traderAllens forum. However there are no rules here on how to blog and although my mind is racing with ideas I’m stuggling putting them into words at the moment. I did manage to send off for the hard copy of Shonn Campbell’s Trading Inventory last week and it sounds like a very interesting read if the little spoiler Rob Booker read out on yesterdays traderspodcacast is anything to go by. Hope it arrives before Christmas so I can read it over the hols along with Bob Volman’s new book.

Just a quick check in to keep myself accountable.
Life a little hectic at the moment, but I’m keeping up my following the chat although now on the free ninjatrader platform on the 70 tick chart linked to a MB Trading simulation account. I assume at some stage the demo account will end and I’ll have to deposit a few readies into a trade account. With the free ninja, it’s the way to go. I noticed that the 70 tick bars are a little different to those posted by traderAllen, but the overall patterns are similar, possibly due to the demo/sim account level of data used.
I’ve got the T and S off ninja and the level II off MB up next to the chart but all I can see is the speed action of these charts changing with volume and don’t understand much else at the moment.
Yes I’m not participating in the chat, I’m one of the silent chickens 🙂 who just read the chat, as I watch the chart, when I’m available, or print off the charts if I’m not present and follow the chat through, scribbling notes on the charts. Thanks to ddtrader, stevefer, a few others like Austin0001 and fxgrinder, and of course it goes without saying traderAllen,there is a continuous list of questions, answers, hints and tactics. I liked the little comment yesterday about being able to enter any time without using a set up as long as we have buying pressure, ( the set ups are mainly there to give us control, to quantify our trades, otherwise trading would be chaotic). I like the comment today about how to control overtrading by plotting a second 500 tick chart and trading only when the trend direction matches, ( a bit of FXA mixed in with FPAS )
I think I’d miss the chat if it went to a webinar format as its easy to scroll through and see the time trades are entered and exited and the trade management along the way. I also think that if too many joined in the chat we may have too much noise and distraction rather than the mostly solid content we presently have. Keep it up chat people, and thanks to you all.
I also every Sunday, print off Bob Volman’s charts to see his take on the past weeks charts and find interesting the little differences between him and traderAllens approach like what to do and where to enter around the 00 and 50 levels, and how Volman’s exit techniques involve the possible anticipation of the reverse magnet effect of 20 levels to the trade along with the tipping point,or how Volman now uses short trendlines,like slope back flag lines as barrier lines as well as the horizontal. Maybe there will be more of this when I get around to the new book, still in amazon packaging.
Anyway enough of the waffle. I’m still here and clucking even if I have lost my head.
I’m outa here!

Life getting a little hectic.

Not written much lately due to various activities in and outside trading getting on top of me.

I’m still to finish my note taking of Bob Volman’s FPAS, but got side tracked with making notes from traderAllen’s new chat page that he does for free each day for a few hours from 9am NY time. I was using the 30 second time chart printed off to follow what was happening during the session with the volume indicator at the bottom of the chart to follow order flow, whilst running through the notes back from the start on 23rd October, then when I caught up using the same charts live following his chat page.

That was until today when I downloaded MB Trading’s platform which allowed me to download for free ninjatrader charting, giving me access to the tick charts that Volman and traderAllen uses. Volman actually uses prorealtime charts, that if your living in the uk can be got for free using IG index spread betting platform, however  I think you must make a minimum number of trades per week, of what size I’m not sure. FXCM do something similar for free ninjatrader but require a £5ooo deposit and a certain amount of trade size aswell. As for Mb Trading, ninja is free but you just can’t trade through it to MB you need to trade straight to MB Trade navigator.  I followed the instructions from one of traderAllen’s youtube videos to set up the tick charts but found a few little issues that I will ask him about on the forum.

Anyway issues with the car, starting my xmas shopping and problems at work have added to the pile of stuff to think about and do. Not even made time to download Shonn Campbells new kindle book on trading inventory yet!

Anyway I keep moving forwards a few steps even if a few steps back aswell.

Good trading and Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends.

 

A crap blog, Outliers again, and Homer may have been a monkey!

It was never my intention for this blog to be a wonderful, well written, well thought out series of articles that would help other traders in their battles with the market. Well I might have dreamt about it. As you may have noticed the content is actually quite crap. When I have tried to emulate others by attempting to to address problems I have found in the trading trenches,  in a intellectual and artistic fashion it often looks terrible in the finished form. The thoughts in my head don’t seem to be transferred to the articles in any way that satisfies me.  A low IQ and a lack of artistry doesn’t actually bother me though, as this blog is my own crap account of my journey to be a successful trader without any advertising or affiliations that would make it appear I have other motives for writing it. If you think you have a high IQ then you might like the Nassim Taleb book I’m reading at the moment, ”Fooled by Randomness.” The messages in it are brilliant, but the academic style, huge exaggerated wording and scientific name dropping is well too much for me to take in. Lucky though it was Taleb and not some of the clever bastards he writes about, or the lucky rich fools that he puts down, that wrote it. Lessons to be learnt here, but when will you ever know if you are the lucky fool or the clever unlucky one? A bigger sample of results here folks may actually be the opposite of what we thought that basic probability theory was telling us. Note in the book about if a billion to the power of one billion monkeys were put in front of a typewriter it would be highly probable that one may produce an exact copy of the Illiad. Still if you’re interested in risk management its well worth a read. Only up to page 143 on double survivorship biases myself so I thought I’d drop Taleb’s name in to this weeks post to boost my own writers ego.

That being said I do like to read the well written and researched blogs of others like Shonn Campbell, Matt LaCoco, Scott Welsh and James Clear and listen to Rob Booker doing the same with his words and thoughts on the traders podcast. I was going to add Allen Barry to my ever growing smaller list of followees, for he has one really good website and forum and is certainly a clever man and successful trader, but it’s my opinion that he writes worse than me! Again I don’t think he’s too worried about it, he’s just trying to help other traders as best he can and he does great for me,  passes on some really helpful stuff on forex price action scalping and introduced me to some ideas I’d likely never have found elsewhere.

Ok, now I have just completed my fourth reading of Bob Volman’s ”Forex Price Action Scalping.” On the last reading I went through and made 98 pages of A4 notes. I’ve just been through those notes and ended up with 21 pages of notes of notes. I’m now working through these trying to consolidate them into categories. Call it notes of notes of notes if you wish, but this time I want to really understand what it is these notes are telling me. Then I’m going to have to take each section and focus on simple parts of it on the live charts without actually trading, starting with the most basic aspects and incorporating practice and repetition on live charts. James Clear writes about doing something similar discussing the meaning behind the Outlier’s 10000 hours theory in one of his most recent articles  Read this article on JamesClear.com  . Duane Hope in his most inspiring interview with Rob Booker ( over a year and a half ago now) mentioned a similar process, quoting Benjamin  Franklyn’s method for self improvement in the best selling sales books by Frank Bettger.

Anyway I’m not going to go back through this article and edit and rethink it out in any way as it is crap, and it is my crap blog at that. My own focus is not to make this blog great but to make my trading great, so I must not waste too much of my time on what will contribute so little to my future success. Pareto and all.  My new Bob Volman book has also arrived but it is still in the Amazon cardboard wrapping and I’ve decided to leave it unopened until Christmas, so it doesn’t distract my focus as so many other books, courses, etc have done in the past.

If any one has actually read this far, I thank you and you need to know that you are probably alone and most probably need to get some sort of help and possibly a blog of your own so you don’t have to read my endless waffle. 

Cheers and here’s a few photo’s to show my artistic side. 

This one in the shape of a fan is my 98 pages of notes.

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This one packs the same punch but with only 21 pages.

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I call this a pyramid of books. Note the unopened undiscovered tomb below the well researched topping.

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Finally this is my daughters WWI trench, which contains a  minor artistic influence from myself. ( The sharp bits and the glue, that is.)

IMG-20141025-00319

Bob Volman has written a new book!

Yes, it’s true. The author of the best book I’ve ever read on forex trading, has written a new book. ” Undertstanding Price Action: practical analysis of the 5- minute time frame.”

I’ve just ordered my copy, here’s the review taken straight from Amazon.

Understanding Price Action is a must read for both the aspiring and professional trader who seek to obtain a deeper understanding of what is commonly referred to as “trading from the naked chart”. With hundreds of examples commented on in great detail, Volman convincingly points out that only a handful of price action principles are responsible for the bulk of fluctuations in any market session—and that it takes common sense, much more than mastery, to put these essentials to one’s benefit in the trading game.

The power of the book lies in the exceptional transparency with which the concepts and trading techniques are put forth. Besides offering the reader a comprehensive study on price action mechanics, included within is a series of six months of consecutive sessions of the eur/usd 5-minute. Containing nearly 400 fully annotated charts, this section alone harbors a massive database of intraday analysis, not found in any other trading guide.

Written with a razor-sharp eye for practical detail, yet in a highly absorbable manner,Understanding Price Action breathes quality from every page and is bound to become a classic in the library of any trader who is serious about his education.

Exciting, yes?

Study-Rehearse-Experience.

I’m still in the study phase of Bob Volman’s forex price action scalping method, which is the reason for a lack of trade journal postings on my blog. I’ve recently read the book twice and made detailed notes on the second reading. Now I’m working through my notes, making notes of notes, then it will be on to notes of notes of notes, then likely a third reading with my consolidated notes in my mind. I have done a few rehearsals looking through Bob Volman’s dropbox trades and traderAllens trades on his forum, but nothing like I want to do before going to the live charts.

At the end of Chapter 15 ‘Unfavourable Conditions,’ (Referring to the use of aggression or prudence in our trades), Bob writes, ”Bear in mind that the technical edge in trading, as much as it is the key to survival in the markets, is quite a dubious phenomenon as well. In contrast, the edge in a game of roulette, just to name one, is evident. It will surface. In trading, however, the edge is much more a personal perception than it is a statistical certainty. And it could be totally off. In the face of such ambivalence, how could a trader ever trust his own perception and back it up with capital to boot? Quite simply: he studies, rehearses and experiences. And then he studies, rehearses and experiences some more. There is no way around it. The committed trader who is truly determined to turn his scalping ventures into a proper business will find his edge, and his own way of trading it, eventually.

Also as a side note, I’m also reading, ‘ Fooled by Randomness,’ by Nassim Taleb, an interesting book about the role of chance in life and the markets. Some long words to get through, but still a good read.

Also 2 more excellent articles by James Clear, Read this article on JamesClear.com and Read this article on JamesClear.com and a truly interesting traderspodcast number 297 this week Ep 297 – The Journey to Become a Full-Time Trader . Also enjoying Shonn Campbell’s fxinventory postings on his blog at  http://tradinglifeownit.wordpress.com/ which leave you with plenty of food for thought on stop hunts and such.

Well back to the study now. I’m outta here!

The Three Methods of TraderAllen.

We are often told that we can only take so much information in at any one time. Remembering numbers longer than 6 or 7  digits is extremely difficult unless you break the numbers down into smaller groups like we do with our telephone numbers. If you were going in to identify someone in a police line up, you would be far less likely to recognise them if you were asked to describe them with as much detail as you could before you went to do it.  There are countless ways we can confuse ourselves with too much information. There are a few chapters in Malcolm Gladwell’s, ”Blink” that do far more justice to this than I could ever do, in describing this sort of stuff, notably, ”The Theory of Thinslices,” and ”Paul Van Riper’s Big Victory.”

To those not completely familiar with scalper traderAllens methods, ignoring his off the cuff Dice trades that appear totally discretionary, he has three methods:

The first is based on Bob Volman’s book, ”Forex Price Action Scalping” (FPAS), where Allen appears also to be using his long term trend direction charts taken from his second method based on Tim Lucarelli’s ”Forex Secrets” at fxaddicts.com (FXA) as far as I see it, to determine  either the direction to trade FPAS or the amount of account to risk when going short or long in them, (not exactly sure which). In Volman’s book in chapter 11 when analysing the charts from fig’s 11.3 and 11.4, he goes into some detail on the dangers of entering trades with any sort of pre-determined directional bias, even if only on the subconscious level, which directly conflicts with traderAllens usage. Of course this isn’t a citicism of traderAllen’s own trading which appears exceptional but a warning signal to anyone looking to jump in and trade how he does. Forum member Steve wrote in the shoutbox asking if it was possible to trade FPAS on its own and nothing else. Well although not yet successful myself, so take this as you may, but to me it appears that traderAllen is inadvertently adding confusion with too much information and I would say it was absolutely necessary to learn FPAS and absolutely nothing else to start with, because too much information at this stage would be overload. From what I can see there are plenty of other differences as well, such as Volman’s 10 pip stop and his tipping point technique which  greatly conflicts with the 3, 6 and 9 stops, or 5, 10 and 15 stops and the move to break even which Volman says is about the worst thing you can technically do with a stop. Also the entries Allen uses utilising the level II time and sales screen, which appear to be slightly at odds with learning the pre breakout tension set up method of Volman. I will however say the level II screen does interest me a lot as this is where traderAllen says he gained his initial success and there can surely be no harm monitoring it as we learn FPAS as long as we don’t actually use it.

The second method as I mentioned above is FXA. TraderAllen recommends this book and it is easy to see where many of the ideas he trades emanate from. To me it is a terrible book, written almost to deliberately confuse, so you have to go back and pay for more information to get to the bottom of it. To say information overload is an understatement. Read it yourself and see what you think, I’m sure you’ll be left as baffled as me in how to end up devising your own algorithm. Maybe I’m looking at the book from the wrong perspective or maybe I have the wrong perception of what it is trying to say, nevertheless I would suggest a far better book and more complete method on a similar line is Rob Wilson’s ”5 Bullets” which better compliments the FPAS as it is also based around trading the EUR/USD on the 1 minute chart. Wilson uses bollinger bands instead of the moving average envelope, he trades with trend off the mid 20 sma as well as the 62 ema and takes trend direction from longer sma’s and support and resistance off the hourly charts. The book is also very inexpensive and not marketed as some dark mysterious secret and written by a very astute x Royal Navy Commander. I could go on and rip Forex Secrets to pieces but traderAllen has managed to get to the bottom of it, so I would only make myself appear more foolish than my scribblings are already doing. I would like to here more of our moderator’s thoughts on it, as he gets to grip.

The third method is traderAllens news trades. To be fair I’ve not really gone into it in detail. TraderAllen advices not to try until we are already successful. I would add don’t try FXA as well,  until you are successful, but that’s just me. I have looked at the videos and how the rules are described and can’t actually fathom out what is going on. It looks to me like traderAllen is adding far more discretion to these trades and it would take him to possibly write his own Volman like book for me to understand. Sorry!

Well that’s my take on the methods, for what its worth. I’m presently in the last third of Volman’s  book, on the second read with a stack of notes to hand. The more you study this book the more you realise how much information it contains. Again there is too much information for my brain to assimilate, so when my notes are done I will be going back to ”Thinslice” them down and down again to something more manageable.

This journal report was not meant to be a troll. I would hope it may stimulate others to write down their thoughts that I may empathise with or disagree. An interesting thing came up this week about writing down your ideas which may help. Most of what we write is probably of little or no consequence, but if you do write down your ideas in a journal every now and again you might write something that gives you or someone else that ah ha moment, an epiphany. Read this if your interested, James Clears free weekly inspirational letters from Monday. Read this article on JamesClear.com  On the other hand you may think that by actually describing your own thoughts you might actually confuse your brain and forget about what it actually was you meant to say!

Two Years of Blogging.

After nearly two years blogging my forex journey, my blog views seem to be on the increase. I’ve just topped 4000 views, however the number of those who come and clear off immediately must be quite high, as the visitors to views ratio looks like it as a little less than 1:2. (See my monthly stats chart below. Note for any one who has read Malcolm Gladwell’ s ”The Tipping Point,” that surge in views in Feb this year that happened over two days, was due to that key man Rob Booker, tweeting me. The power of certain people on social media is comparable to Paul Revere’s ride or the key persons in the mid 1990’s Baltimore syphilis epidemic! )

Anyway this blog is my own journal and not really meant as a read for others, until that is, I break through with consistent trading, which yet eludes me. However I do feel I’m moving closer, so beware you naysayers, you’ll soon be eating your words.

The blog looks a little quiet these days, but I have posted a couple of articles on my new scalping page which probably don’t appear on updates, and I am also burning the midnight oil, down in my cave, studying like never before.

Thanks for those few readers who have made inspiring comments. Never had any trolls yet, I’m looking forwards to those when I am successful, but I do get lots of spammers who in their pidgeon English style, appear to lavish praise on my site, for no reason at all to do with trading. I did get one person who said they wanted to become regular a commenter after making some real positive comments, but when I told them I don’t allow any external advertising as the site was primarily my opinions, they never came back. Strange!

Anyway good luck all and do pay me a visit in another year or two. You never know what you will find.

ScreenHunter_01 Sep. 22 12.14

Edison