The Elusive Fxoutlier.

”People’s zeal for battle increases in direct proportion to their distance from the front line.” 

Chief Leabua Jonathon (a former Prime Minister of Lethoso ).

I’ve been away from the trading front line for a couple of months and from blogging for a lot longer, however my zeal has not diminished. My blogging is about my attempt to put it all together and often that is helped by the input from other like minded souls trying the same as me. Thanks for all the comments received to my articles last year and to the small dwindling number of blog followers. The thing is though, I’ve recently withdrawn from everything, not listening to the traders podcast, following blogs and commenting on other’s journeys and have been hiding in my cave, spending time in the wilderness, so to speak.

”Traders talk amongst themselves, not necessarily to discuss bullish or bearish market opinions, but rather to share insights into the nature and quirkiness of this business. The mental toll trading exacts definitely forms bonds. When we open up it is always surprising to discover the similarity of lessons learned, experiences shared, and how we all independently arrive at the same conclusions. Often in talking with each other we’re really looking for clues into our own heads, hoping to understand ourselves a little better.”

from ”Street Smarts,” by Laurence A. Connors, Linda Bradford Raschke.

I think this is why I always like listening to Shonn and Matt discussing trading like this old edition of thetraderspodcast  Ep 179 – Shonn & Matt at The Cigar Shop or, TRADER TALK PODCAST – The Magical … They also appeared on a recent video on Chris Pulver’s website rhino-trader, but I don’t know what’s happened there, as the site has vanished from existence.

2015 Was a frustrating year in one sense, but a massive learning experience in another. I started off by trying to trade swings off longer term support and resistance and entering using the Bob Volman tick-chart set-ups, from his books. I was edging my account very slowly upwards, but to improve had decided to try and emulate Matt LaCoco (without really understanding the way he trades), by getting my stop to break even as quick as I could and waiting for the trades that just flew away into profit. Took a number of stop outs, many almost to the pip, some only by the spread and got frustrated, boiled over and overtraded. My profits vanished and I ended up on a loss. I then decided to split each trade into two. First half profit would be taken as a scalp which would allow my stop on the second to stay the same number of pips behind my entry for an overall break-even. I started to make progress again if rather slowly. Then I lost my free Ninjatrader platform and continued to trade whilst getting frustrated with several attempts at using different platforms. My mind wasn’t on the trading and I ended up boiling over again into overtrade mode, losing all the gains I had made and more. Decided to take a break after the damage was done to do some reading and a few courses. Took a month to train with Kim Krompass and entered about 180 trades using my own version of her methods. I must have hit the worst 2 weeks in Kim’s year for trading her methods with little follow-through in her range breakouts and clear directional move pullbacks which started me off on a downer (it wasn’t just me this time) but started clawing most of those losses back in the second two weeks. Her monthly fee’s are rather expensive at $197/month, so I could only take a month, but got the gist of most of what she does, if not the experience of putting it all together.

2016 Where do I go from here? Well each time I boiled over last year, I was either adding something new to the way I traded, or my mind was attempting to do something else at the same time, so I will be watching out for those occasions again, to stop or reduce my exposure before I do the damage. Recently I’ve been hitting more books and courses and pdf’s and making a plan and trying to simplify my plan and now I’m testing and re-evaluating my plan. This will take me much longer than I first thought. It’s almost like I’ve returned full circle back to where I started. I’ve been mainly been re-reading old stuff and re-doing old courses that resonated in the past with how I want to go. Check out this short article from about trader Matt LaCoco for an idea where I’m trying to get to. <Matt LaCoco – Continue Reading>

”Even though we present many different patterns, you only need ONE strategy to be prosperous. Some of the best traders are successful because they trade only one strategy. Hopefully, all of the patterns in the manual will increase your awareness of certain market idiosyncrasies and will serve as a confirmation of your own market observation.”

from ”Street Smarts,” by Laurence A. Connors, Linda Bradford Raschke.  This book I haven’t read before and is my present read.

Just finished another book, ”Profitable day and swing trading,” by Harry Boxer. (Not recommending this one as the trading charts in this are so tiny and on a black background they are almost useless.) Still I did enjoy the last chapter 17, ”38 Steps to becoming a successful trader,” which I wanted to print out here as it’s only a couple of pages long, but Wiley refused me permission. So sorry for this shortened post, but I just needed to dip my toe into the blog again, to get things going and rekindle my enthusiasm for waffling on about my thoughts and directions. Hopefully I will be heading a new post later in the year, ” The Ubiquitous Fxoutlier,” although by that time you will probably be hiding in your own cave and will be going your own way.

I’m outta here.

See you soon.





10 responses

  1. Nice to have you back.

  2. welcome back outlier. i can definitely empathize with the need to take some time off. good luck in ’16

  3. Hey Outlier: Just wanted to let you know I’m calling it quits! I really never thought I would. I guess I have to eat crow but that’s fine! I had a year where I was as into trading as anyone can be. You know how it is! Well, thank GOD things are going well for me in my career and I decided that since I’m still going nowhere with my trading it’s just a waste of my time. I would have loved to strike it rich as a trader. The thought of sitting by a desk with no overhead, no worries, no emails etc. It all sounds great but it’s no easy feat. Over the past few months I have been a lot less attached to trading and I tried a few different versions of my method, namely buying in support and selling in resistance when there is a W or M and keeping my stop below the support with a free path to the target. It went kind of well. I still need more discipline to keep to only the best trades. I’m pretty impulsive and trading is hard for a guy like me. Sure, maybe I could have kept at it for another few years or more and eventually make something out of it but life is short and I gotta weigh my options of making a living. When I’m honest with myself I know for certain that my career is where I’ll make my money and trading is where I’ll lose it.

    Wish you the best of luck!

    All the best,

  4. Sounds like you’ve made a good decision. If I was still married, I wouldn’t be trying to do this, that’s for sure. Never knew how you made the time, with your career and young family and all, especially to be involved with traderAllen as much as you were.
    Myself, divorced, no career, no pension, 54 years old, awful job I hate, ( although it pays the bills and helps support my daughter ). I’ve nowhere else to go and no money to lose. I burnt my warships long ago and my back is against the wall. The more I learn, the more I feel I’m further away from any goal in trading. Sometimes it feels like 1 step forwards and 2 steps back and I’m sure you know that feeling. I’m currently reading and making notes on every single blog post from Steve W website, which I’ve been through before, but I’m repeating as a primer for taking his course at Yes another course to try and flll in the gaps that appear to be missing in my trading. Another brick in the wall so to speak, but it’s been five years since I started and sitting at a desk with no overheads, no worries, etc is still a distant goal. Still it’s my only goal, unlike yourself with good career prospects. So all the best dd and don’t look back as I’m sure you’re taking the right path.

  5. Hi Fxoutlier,

    I have been thinking what could help you and have an idea. Over the last year I have bought some courses showing recordings of trades made by real traders, with their commentaries and how they think. I can give you access to my subscriptions for free.
    If you are interested, please send me an email.

    1. Cheers I’ve just emailed you.

  6. Sounds like you are as eager for Matt LaCoco’s course as I am. Although I wouldn’t hold your breath. He did say that you can’t practice his style of extreme breakeven trading during the volatility of the London or NY sessions. You’ll get stopped out every time. He trades the Asian session exclusively. And he takes very few trades. About a month ago, he said he hadn’t taken any trades in 2016 yet. That should give you an idea of how selective he is.
    I would caution against over education. Learning as much as possible about trading is useful in helping you narrow who you are as a trader. But learning too much can be detrimental. I had to take several years off – no trading. One of the reasons was to try to forget much of what I had learned. Too much knowledge and you’ll get to where you can justify a trade anywhere on a chart.

    1. Thanks for the good advice. I take note. Good to get some quality feedback.

  7. Hi Fxoutlier,

    I came to your page when trying to find reviews on Kim Krompass’s course. Just like you, i am still searching around for a strategy that i feel comfortable with. Would you mind to share your thoughts about Kim Krompass’s course.


    1. Hi Johvon.
      I joined Kim Krompass for one month and can’t of course say if she actually makes an overall profit herself. She tweets when she gets in and out on twitter but did not prove her actual results, only listing the end of day pip totals. I found I tended to get stopped more often than her, but as I said one month maybe not enough time spent. For all I know she may be doing it all on demo. There was another guy who did the London session as she only traded the US and I found I was almost always getting stopped when he stayed in and made a profit. They didn’t say who their brokers were for they may have had zero spreads and ignored the heavy commissions when posting results and that may be why their losses were less than mine. Entering on overnight range breakouts on up to 12 or more pairs means you do enter a lot of trades so spreads or commissions are relatively large overall. To trade with them was quite expensive for what you got and I thought after one month I could take away everything that was taught.
      Basically she looks at each chart and see’s what price has been doing since midnight GMT, has 2 support/resistance lines at the high and low of the day and if price moves above she enters a breakout trade. She uses the 15 min chart and if price closes back inside the range she closes the trade and the range s/r line is moved to the new high. She also asks the question has there been a clear one directional move overnight and likes to trade in that direction entering when price pulls back to the low of the previous candle in a bull trend or high of the previous candle in a bear trend. Stop losses are put in at 8, 10 or 12 pips depending on the pair. 8 for the less volatile like the eurusd and 12 for the more volatile gbpjpy. When stopped she can’t enter again on the same pair until price moves towards the 00 50 80 or 20 lines where she enters on a stop order or pulls back on a limit, trading in the direction of the trend. She likes to trade between the 50 and 00 lines and often waits for price to break through then with a rush propelled by stops being hit. She also tends to watch all her pairs to see which currency is strong or weak across many pairs and let those run longer taking profits at the 20, 80, 50, 00 on the rest. It’s a simplistic approach and there’s a lot to be said for that. Trading with trend on a pullback also seems sensible but the stops are only tiny which makes it difficult and trading range breakouts can lead to many small losses or stops. Don’t take my word try a month and give it your full attention and leave if you think like me.
      For me I remain a skeptic but she does seem to be a very nice person. There are however a lot of very nice people wanting to take your money off you in trading education!
      I am now personally doing Al Brooks trading course and there is so much detailed information that it is taking some time to get through it, which is why I haven’t blogged for ages. Something big coming me thinks. This course I do however strongly recommend if you forget about overnight success. He describes it like doing a business college/university degree course which would take 2 to 3 years. I read one of his book on trading trends which was a really difficult and slow read. Some describe his work as boring but so are most university lectures and you just have to play the long game with it and persevere doing a lesson or 2 a day. If say you did try his course don’t bother with the old downloadable version go straight for the one he is still writing now but expect to do it 2 or 3 times over making notes to consolidate the information and also taking time trading small and journaling your trade screenshots for practical experience. There is much, much more information here than in Kim’s course and a lot more professional too, you maybe like me need to try and experience everything, so do a month or more with Kim and maybe you see something that I don’t.
      Hope that’s been helpful and remember it is going on a year or 2 since I did tried the Kim Krompass stuff so things may have changed.
      Didn’t do it for me,
      Cheers fxoutlier

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