There is an old, old story about a farmer in China. One year the weather was very good and his crops grew strong and high, and all his neighbours told him how lucky he was to have such a fine crop and he replied,’Maybe.’ Then the day before he was going to start the harvest a herd of wild horses came running off the plains and trampled all his crops flat. His neighbours came around and said how unlucky he was to lose his fine crop. The farmer replied, ‘Maybe.’ The next day the farmer’s son went out with a length of rope and caught a wild stallion and three mares, and the neighbours came round to admire the horses and told the farmer how lucky he was. The farmer said, ‘Maybe.’ In the morning the farmer’s son started to break in the horses and no sooner had he mounted the stallion than it threw him, and he fell on the ground and broke his leg. The neighbours carried him indoors and commiserated with the farmer, saying how unlucky he was that his only son was so badly injured. The farmer replied, ‘Maybe.’ The next day the Emperor’s army came to the village on the way to fight a great battle and all the able-bodied young men were press-ganged into the army. But the farmer’s son was not taken because of his broken leg. All his neighbours told the farmer how lucky he was that his son had been saved from the army and the farmer said, ‘Maybe.’
This is one of the stories on a cd of self hypnosis by Paul McKenna. It is there to re-frame your perspective when positive and negatives things happen in your life. When you have a winning trade, then a loser. When you have a string of losers then a few winners. Whatever it is, taking a positive perspective helps to critically analyse our own work, in this case our trades. On my scalping page I had listed and tried to neutrally analyse each one of my 57 trades taken over my first month live. I have ended up risking 570 pips using a 10 pip stop on each trade. I have ended up after one month -16 pips down averaging a loss of 0.28 pips per trade. Not a bad start considering a spread of 1.4 pips per trade on average with Oanda this past month. I will say though that I lost 30 pips this week in this ranging market, losing 9 of my 13 trades. Every BB seemed to stall and of those that were winners, the max I took was 5.7 pips, there have been many lessons here, many probably not yet really absorbed. Recognising these conditions seems to be a big factor in either refraining from break outs or reversing the logic and trading the counter reversal. The week started on post NFP Monday with very little news. All week we had the Euro/Greek stand off hanging around, never going anywhere. Tues, Weds, Thurs, also devoid of market moving announcements.Then Profit taking Friday after such a poor week. Daily ranges appeared as tight doji’s on the daily chart, held in by the 50 and 00. False breaks continuously outside the 50’s and 00’s. TraderAllen was warning all week. He started to look at the USDJPY and took Friday off. Was there anything else I needed to see. Evidently from my weeks results I wanted something else. I was still trading Friday but by this time was very cautious and got out of each of my two trades for around BE.
Next month my work shifts fall mostly during the week so my live trading will be limited, but time at the weekend for looking at the sim and more analysis, more meditations, more reading and setting down my rules that I mentioned in a previous article. It is important no matter what obstacles there are to your own trading, that you take a positive perspective on what you are doing with your time.
I say to all out there start an open journal. Expect to lose for this is how you will learn. Don’t care what your neighbours think or say about your results. Your greatest lessons come after a series of losers as long as you keep journalling. Stop your journal and you have lost because you will be trying to blank out the losers and relying on hope and you will think you’ve turned the corner after a series of winners when it was just pure chance. TraderAllen commented on the chat that it takes around three years to become successful, to which I replied, ‘Only 35 months to go then.’
My first month started on 13 Jan and ended on Fri 13 Feb. If you say to me that it was unlucky to have started and ended my first month on the 13th and a Friday at that, then I will say to you, ‘Maybe.’