I’m closing down this blog which I haven’t been updating for quite some time now. I have not left trading, far from it as I am actively trading more now than ever. This was just my first attempt at blogging and much of what I wrote here is not how I think about trading today. I am building a website elsewhere and some of my posts I am taking with me, elaborating on, or totally revising and others are being trashed. I don’t see my new site up and running for a couple of years yet, as I am writing up all my ideas as a type of trading course, which I want to present in its finished form. So until then the fxoutlier has gone to ground, but he is determined to ride again, although under a different name. You will probably never know of my return unless you decide to take a new course and stumble across a few familiar words. Tha’ts it I’m outta here.
”Thinking about thinking is known as metacognition; and while the ”how” of what to do is what everyone always wants to know, you need to thoroughly understand the ”why” first. If you don’t you won’t believe in it; and if you don’t believe it, you can’t feel it; and if you can’t feel it, you won’t – and actually can not do it. Oh, it might look like you do- for some time period equivalent to the average success on a diet, say- but soon, you will be in search of a new answer, strategy, or miracle.”
From ”Market Mind Games” by Denise Shull
The Novice Trader and the Professional Gambler
PG: For most people the word gambling has negative connotations with the word betting slightly less negative, risk taking lesser still and the word trading by comparison can sound perfectly respectable. Trading however is just another form of risk taking where you speculate on the outcome of price movement, rather than the toss of a coin or the result of a horse race.
NT: Hold on, trading is a skill that can be learnt and there are many examples of successful traders.
PG: Well, there are several examples of successful horse race gamblers as well.
NT: Everyone knows most gamblers lose and some ruin their lives through it.
PG: Tell me that isn’t the same for traders?
NT: Ok, well you can’t win on a coin toss game.
PG: You may be able to if you were offered 3 to 1 on heads.
NT: Anyone could win with those odds.
PG: Not necessarily.
NT: What d’you mean?
PG: Check the maths below*1.
PG: If you want a better understanding of what staking strategies could do to your bottom line, have a look at this experiment of the results of betting on a biased coin by a group of finance graduates.
PG: If a high fraction of quantitatively sophisticated, financially trained individuals have so much difficulty in playing a simple game with a biased coin, what should we expect when it comes to the rest of us.
NT: Ok I get it, so all I need to do now is learn how to trade, now I know to keep my risk in check.
PG: Maybe you would be best starting out with the why you do what you do, rather than how to do it.
NT: What d’you mean?
Enhancing performance with inhibition training.
I’ve always found it hard to take on an idea and use it, if it sounds like it may cause some discomfort, even if the idea is touted by those I respect and I know it makes sense. I need something else to give me the nudge I need to take it forward.
Recently in episode 47 of Rob Booker’s trader radio soundcloud.com/traderradio Rob revisited the day trading tactic, of letting your first trade go and taking your second trade first. Makes sense but that fear of missing out on that first good trade, created enough discomfort for me to disregard the idea in the past.
Researchers from Universities of Exeter and Cardiff published an article June 14 2012 in the journal ‘Psychological Science,’ looking into how people can train their brains to become less impulsive, resulting in less risk-taking during gambling.
Participants in one experiment were asked to repeatedly enter bets selecting between low odds (high probability-low return) and high odds (low probability-high return) bets. They made their selections by pressing a key on a computer keyboard.
At certain times the gambling tasks were combined with an ”inhibition task.” Participants had to refrain from making a choice when presented with a stop signal, which forced them to not press the key on the keyboard.
It was found that when participants had to occasionally hold back from making a selection, they slowed down and became more cautious in the amount of money they bet, suggesting that becoming more cautious about pressing the keys on the keyboard led to greater caution in risk taking.
In other experiments they examined whether training people to stop hand responses to arbitrary signals on the computer screen would have longer-term effects on risk-taking. They found that this inhibition training was able to reduce risk-taking in gambling by 10-15% a significant amount and this effect lasted for at least 2 hours.
Dr Chris Chambers of Cardiff University’s School of Psychology says, ”These results suggest that our impulses are controlled by highly connected brain systems. Inhibition training reduces risk-taking during gambling.” www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120614130938.htm
So I now have a reason why letting my first trade go may actually enhance my performance in the future, slowing me down and making me less impulsive for at least a few hours. Add this to the elimination of the first likely over impulsive poor trade and also the training my mindset would get as I learn to control my emotions against the fear of missing out of the first trade, I now have three why’s and not just one, why I should implement this tactic into my trading.
Gamblers have been found to misjudge their chances of winning due to errors in thinking called cognitive distortions.
Near misses appear to make a gambler play more even though it is just another loss. Having a run of events like several reds on roulette makes people think that black is due. This is called the ”Gambler’s Fallacy.” Opposing this we have what is known as the ”Hot Hand Fallacy” where in games of skill a run of good results makes competitors believe their luck is in and will continue. There is evidence that problem gamblers are particularly prone to these errors, but even so at times, all gamblers may become more vulnerable especially after a run of losers, or other external emotional or environmental reasons.
Dr Luke Clarke of the University of Cambridge April 2014 published research that used several patients with different brain injuries in an experiment to determine which part of the brain was responsible for these distortions. He used gambling games in the research. 1: A slot machine that delivered wins and near misses and 2: A roulette game involving red or black. He used a control group of healthy patients and was able to report that all groups were effected by near misses and the gamblers fallacy except for the insula brain damaged group. So we know that a part of our brain ”the insula” is responsible for these distortions and that they occurred in the healthy control group as well. This part of the brain was already known to have a key role in our emotions and so any adverse emotional stimuli may make a person more vulnerable to these fallacies. www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/scientists-identify-part-of-brain-linked-to-gambling-addiction
At the same time in April 2014 Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey, researchers at University College London released a study into the effects of winning and losing streaks on the chances of future success in online sports gambling. They sampled 569,915 bets from 776 online gamblers and looked at how previous winning streaks or losing streaks affected the probability of a win in the future. Overall the bets taken in the GBP currency, there were 48% winning bets made and 52% losing bets.
After a single winner the winning percentage rose to 49% on the next bet, After 2 consecutive winners the winning % rose to 57%. After 3 it rose to 67%, and 4 was 72% and 5 was 76% and finally after 6 consecutive wins we arrived at 76%. What was found was the increase in win % appeared to validate the hot hand, however what was happening was after winning the bettors became more cautious with their selections, choosing lower odds selections but risking more money on them. The gamblers fallacy actually appeared to create the hot hand.
After consecutive losers the opposite happened and the next selections kept losing more and more. The gamblers fallacy that was suppose to reverse the fortune did not occur because the losers started selecting riskier higher odds selections with less money staked upon them. They were reverting to hope and luck to reverse their fortunes rather than expecting the gamblers fallacy to prevail and reduced stakes presumably after their pot of money had been reduced by losses
Taking a look at the controlled results on the charts www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010027714000031 you will notice that the probabilities of winning appear to diverge from the norm after 2 consecutive wins or losses and even more so after 3. This would suggest that we need to take special care after 2 consecutive losses or 2 consecutive wins and even more care after 3 and that we don’t subconsciously without thinking, change our trading approach because of those streaks. In fact it may be a good idea at this stage to either walk away or do some sort of mindfulness training, or both, to bring back our insula back to a normal state so we can continue thinking without thinking in our most productive state.
Ratus at Vegas
Research published earlier this year in the Journal of Neuroscience by researchers at the University of British Columbia shows that rats behave like problem gamblers when sound and light cues were added to a ”Rat Casino” model.
The rats who participated in the study gambled for sugary treats and learned to avoid the risky options, however when flashing lights and music was added to the mix they started taking much riskier bets.
Catherine Winstanley, associate professor in the Department of Psychology and Djavad Mowafaghian from the Centre for Brain Health said, ”Unexpectedly the effects were enormous. Anyone who’s ever designed a casino game or played a gambling game will tell you that of course sound and light cues keep you more engaged. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160120111517.htm
This appears to have exactly the opposite effect of letting the first trade go by. The environment we work in has to play a big role in our ability to remain in the zone for want of a better description. Recently I heard Chris Pulver describe how he wears sunglasses during trading to protect his eyes from the glare of the screen. What if those same sunglasses were having a secondary effect by helping keep his focus at the correct levels for the selectivity he requires during trading.
Time for Bed
We all know we make worse decisions when we’re tired than after a good nights sleep. A study published in the Journal of Neuroscience looked into the effects of sleep deprivation on decision -making skills, finding that a tired brain tends to make overly optimistic gambles. The study found that tired people tended to try to maximise their winnings rather than defending against potential losses. As we all know in trading protecting our capital is one of the golden rules so getting into a regular habit of getting a good nights sleep has to be a must. Personally I find that having a few drinks the night before affects my sleep so that I feel groggy the next day, even if it’s only two or three glasses of beer. healthland.time.com/2011/03/09/improve-your-odds-in-vegas-try-getting-a-full-nights-sleep/
The Professional Short Term Day Trader
Lastly after all those investigations above into the why rather than the how, I want you to go and listen to one of the best trading podcasts I’ve ever heard here, around 30 mins long soundcloud.com/thebookerreport scroll down and listen to episode episode 115 with special guest host Matt LaCoco. Take special note of the 5 things that Matt says he keeps in the fore-front of his mind while trading. Listen to how he assesses himself as part of the trading system. Think about what he says he might do after a couple of losses. And by the way the first time I heard about someone who lets the first trade go was, yes Matt LaCoco. Note how he likes to enter trades so he knows he is wrong very quickly and how this helps his focus to be more selective and it doesn’t allow for jumping in on impulse. This is pure gold for short-term day traders and a must listen too, many, many times.Finally listen to his final words, which are ” It’s more important to think about why you’re trading than how you’re trading.”
I’ve been busy trying to organise and update several other pages on my blog recently with loads more work still to do and neglecting to put up any new posts for my dwindling handful of followers here. To get around this I’ve decided to cut and paste straight from my trading plan page something I’ve just knocked together after a day at work. Please excuse the poor grammar and spelling in such a hastily written article.
This section is where I outline the guiding philosophy in my trade plan. The trader’s guiding philosophy, being a principle first mooted by Mr W R Booker.
Traders that I have empathised with over the years, often have a way of thinking about their trading, drawn from some of their life experiences before they took up trading.
Shonn Campbell trades a style which he calls ‘Inventory Trading.’ He uses the retailer trading model of buying and selling products or services as his guiding philosophy and sometimes even uses his experience coming from an agricultural community to back it up. He’s even written a book about it. Rob Wilson uses a guiding philosophy of military tactics, often making analogies to his short term trading using the military tactics of an insurgent against a super power. Quotes from Sun Tzu are common place and he refers to things like the ‘fog of war,’ jetty rush’ and ‘recovery strategies’ which is unsurprising given that he has commanded a Royal Navy battleship. Matt LaCoco talks about the motor bike racing he has been involved in and relates his past success’s he’s had in that field to his style of trading. He talks about the risk of falling off the bike in relation to the speed of travel around the circuit, and was able to win a championship by not riding faster than everyone else, but by falling off less.
When it comes down to it, the style of trading we need to use to be most successful, seems to have to match up with our personality which is both nature and nurture. The nature bit is probably our intelligence level and our natural creative talent and the nurture is our own successful risk taking experiences within the confines of our natural abilities. When I refer to intelligence, I don’t necessarily mean being able to complete complex cryptic crosswords or IQ tests in as short a time as possible, although maybe that can help certain styles of trading. The intelligence quotient is the result of just one way of measuring intelligence, apparently there are many other ways that it could be done. I heard once that IQ tests were invented and marketed by people who were good at these sort of tests. So of course they like to think of themselves as the intellectual elite and superior to others with lesser ability at these tests. IQ could be thought of as a term invented and used as a power thing, and a put down for those not in the group. Read some of Taleb’s books/ twitter comments and you will notice there is rarely a moment where he isn’t implying how intelligent he is and how dumb someone else is. I’m sure many extremely high IQ types are geniuses, but there is no doubt that there are many failures in life whose genius abilities haven’t enabled them to be a success and many idiots who have done the complete opposite. Why is this so, if they are such clever bastards? Being a dumb ass myself, with an old school report that said ‘Works hard, but as thick as pig shit!’ Well, I would say all these things wouldn’t I, to boost my own level in the pecking order of life. I personally don’t suck up to clever bastards, however I do want to pick their brains and use what they may not even be able to use themselves, probably because they can’t understand that all they need is a successful risk taking philosophy and not a super fast brain.
Whether you are a high street retailer, a military general, or a motorbike racing champion you will have taken risks on, managed them and found or observed some sort of success in this risk taking model, for you to relate to them in your trading. You may even not actually need the experience if you can relate to others who have. What it appears to do somehow, is to super charge your trading and take you to the next level of professional discipline that is required to move you through the barrier of frustration to success. IQ may not actually matter a jot. So if you’re a dumb ass like me, don’t give up so quickly and just find a successful risk taking model to relate to.
For me my guiding philosophy / risk taking model for my trading plan is what I am now calling ” Cake Walk Trading,” which I’m going to delve into more deeply in this section of my plan, explaining how it all relates to my own style of trading.
To be continued……
For now those seriously interested in what this ‘Cake Walk’ model is about, can get an idea from this blog post I wrote over a year ago about ‘A lesson From My Childhood Holidays.’ https://fxoutlier.com/2015/05/10/a-lesson-from-my-childhood-holidays/
Here’s an old disused Cake Walk machine that my guiding philosophy is based on.
If you have read that article and now got this far, you may be thinking that I’ve gone completely mad and that I certainly am a complete dumb ass. You maybe thinking such a simple act as winning a few penny’s as a child couldn’t possibly be used in trading, against some of the smartest minds in the world. It is such a ridiculous notion and just too much for you and you probably think everything I’m writing about is a load of bollocks. Well that is most likely because you have a much higher IQ than I, and can’t bring yourself to take any advice from one of your inferiors. That begs the question, if you are so clever, why are you reading such a poorly written, non-academic and stupid article in the first place? Then again you maybe just one of the multitudes of failed genius’s out there, trying to pick the brain of a lesser mortal, to use the occasional accidently good idea they produce, that they are too stupid to use themselves!
If you really want to know if you’re as clever as you think you are, go here.am-i-dumb.com
It’s a Beautiful Sunday Afternoon and How Many Sad Bastards are there Like Me, Sitting Inside, Staring at the Charts?
Posted charts at 17:45 London time Sunday 07 August 2016
I’ve started a new page on my blog for my trading thoughts called ”Ideas” and this post was meant for there, however I haven’t written a post for a month, so thought I’d slip this one in here, to tell you what I’m up to at the moment.
I’ve changed from just trading the EURUSD to having a basket of 12 pairs that I whittle down to just 2 or three for the day, before taking any trades. Maybe this number will drop down in the future. I present each pair below and my thoughts about them at the present time using my present plan. Of course markets are fluid, who knows what will happen during the week and all this could change tomorrow, however it’s really all about my process and my Plan.
I’m trading using set ups and inner trend lines and some measured moves from fxsanalytics.com The set ups and most of the material is available at Steve Winarski’s blog nobrainertrades.com for free and fxsanalytics puts a learning structure too it all, that I thoroughly recommend. I have done a couple of things my own way, I do like to add normal pullback extensions to look for the symmetry of the trend = trend leg moves. I don’t like fib retracements to enter, but it adds a bit of confluence if I know the 50% level has been hit or exceeded. Also I like to clone my inner trendlines which are shown on my charts as dashed lines with the original solid, all parallel of course.
Each trading view chart is separated into 6. The 2 on the left are the new recruits and are there to put what Shonn Campbell calls ‘Context’ on the charts, with structure and continuation liquidity. The context comes from the 120 minutes chart. Shonn uses the 240 min however as I was loath to lose my 60 min I compromised with the 120. Also I get a close every 2 hours that can line up with the 240 whether you have your charts set to 17.00 New York start or 00:00 London which is 2 hours later. I also use Rob Wilson’s 62ema instead of the 100 Shon uses. I always was and am, a big Wilson fan. I strongly recommend Shonn’s ‘Inventory Playbook’ course at fxinventorytrading.com , which I completed over the past few weeks and it should add context to your own trading too if your struggling a little like me. It is very inexpensive and ” on demand.” The middle 2 charts are for my short term, ”no brainer” set ups depending on the speed of the market. 5 mins is my normal pattern set up chart however when things start truckin’, the 1 min can help. The 2 charts to the right are the trend line and levels charts and that’s where I look for price to turn or target.
All my entries must be taken with price moving towards me. This is what I bring to this myself. I don’t wait just for a candle to close for an entry, I wait for a retrace after the close. You can miss some trades that just go, but it helps me not to be sitting in the negative whilst waiting for the move as often can happen. Even if the move goes for it, another setup on the 1 or 5 min may still present itself. This way also prevents any jumping in on the fear of missing out. For example the quasi trade is from nobrainers and it is simply a head and shoulders, but the entry isn’t the neckline, it is the right hand shoulder, often having broken the neckline on a false break showing intent, then a retrace back too the rh shoulder. There is a bit of catching the falling knife here I know, but you can’t have everything and I can and do wait for set ups on the shorter time frames after price has turned, so a slowing of momo is present but not always.
I’d be very surprised if there’s anyone out there still reading this and who actually takes a look at these charts. The charts of a struggling trader, someone who is trying to put it all together. If you’re like me you’d rather look at some one’s charts, who knows what they’re talking about, yes !! Then again you might just be missing out on something.
”Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.”
Calvin Coolidge , US president (1923-29)
I often hear traders talk about how, when they started out they found the winning trades coming easy, and they wish they could get back to that original mindset, and rid of all the psychological baggage they have developed since. How many traders out there started out with this beginners luck that are still trading. I would suggest there are far more than those who started out with bad luck, who were demoralized from the start and headed straight for the door to try something else. Luck has a way of guiding our path though life, how we start out, how we develop, and the opportunities and misfortunes that are presented to us along the way. Malcolm Gladwell’s book ‘Outliers’ highlights this and so does his ‘David and Goliath’ (Were you lucky enough to be the big fish in a small pond?)
Books have been written about talent being over-rated, about nature versus nurture, and as mentioned above about luck. As John Wayne said, ‘Life is hard, it’s harder if you’re stupid.’ Gladwell also wrote about the advantages of having disadvantages. Having something great to overcome can make you greater, for the few who possibly in a way due to luck have the determination to overcome their disadvantageousness. Maybe for some being stupid is fortunate!
When we hear successful people telling us about how they got to where they are, how many of these were just the lucky ones? How many who took the exact same path failed? Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness,’ highlights this in the trading arena. Depending on the environment, traders can be successful, then crash and burn when things change that they don’t understand. Top people in industry can also get where they are with luck, then sit on their laurels and look like they’re doing a wonderful job for quite a while, until the business environment changes, when they are found wanting.
So how many failed genius’s are out there compared to the slow and persistent success stories? Who knows the answer to that one. Put genius together with determination, you get something out of the ordinary, but put determination and persistence to almost any level and it appears to hold sway. Have a quick look at this 2 minute video and see what I mean.
Out of the 500 or so traders podcasts Rob Booker made before he moved to his radio show, the episode number 166 titled, ‘Climbing Through Discouragement to Achieve Greatness.’ is one of my all time favourites. With Rob, Jason Pyles, Scott Welsh and arm wrestling champion Kevin Buetts all adding to the mix, this is a must for anyone determined to see things through. http://traderspodcast.com/episode166/
When I first started trading I took out a demo account with Oanda and was trying to learn a correlation scalping system, taught to me by Welshman Sid Wyeman of forextrainingworks.com. I must have had about the worst run possible, with only 1 winning week in 30 weeks trading, and that was for one trade taken that week for +4 pips. In the whole of the 30 week period I only had about 4 winning trades with the +4 being the largest winner by far. The results here I show you are the sync with forex factory that I took a screenshot of at the time.
The course motto was GOWID. Get out when in doubt and I always seemed to be in doubt. In fact I was always entering at the exact spot the correlated move started reversing and at the worst possible moment. I felt like the worst possible trader at that moment in time and stopped to get help from Paul McKenna books and cd’s, Napoleon Hill, and some very good interactive bio feedback software I purchased to reduce my stress levels called relaxing rhythms with Dr Deepak Chopra from http://www.wilddivine.com .
So after all this misfortune, bad luck, lack of talent, etc, why didn’t I just head for the door and take up gardening or some other less stressful pursuit?
The answer is persistence my friends and the thought that if others could do it so could I. So you could say a bit of competitiveness too. My childhood with a father who studied the horse racing form book , which lead me to do the same and read everything I could about gambling and professional horse race punters was my background. I even wrote a little blog post some while about a childhood summer holiday attacking the amusement arcade penny push machines, if you haven’t you might like too, it got some of my best comments and my only ever post ‘like’ click. https://fxoutlier.com/2015/05/10/a-lesson-from-my-childhood-holidays/
Here’s the very machine I played with success as a child.
Now sometimes we need a lucky break. We need a bit of a run of the ball to get the spirits up, and the juices flowing. We make do with being inspired by others whilst we wait for that bit of luck that can set us off. Then we need to blot out all the losing that came before and concentrate on preserving that which good fortune has given us.
The Trading Experiment
In the spirit of successful trader and fellow blogger Shonn Campbell https://tradinglifeownit.com/author/shonncampbell/ ,who has run two experiments I launched my own 14 weeks ago, after I had a tiny run of luck with my own trading. Since then I’ve been preserving this account and am determined not to let frustration boil over, to reckless trading. I am in the early stages of learning technical analysis with Steve Winiarski at http://fxsanalytics.com/ . I’ve had some ups and downs, once when I was riding home a winner, my office-style swivel-chair collapsed under me and I aggravated an old leg injury. The back and base is now stuck with superglue onto a dinning table chair for comfort during trading.
And after starting to make some headway after flat-lining for a while, I gave a little of it back when a bout of ill health struck this week. On Tuesday I started getting symptoms that effected my concentration. On Wednesday an ambulance took me to the City hospital after I developed paralysis of the left side of the face. A condition called Bell’s Palsy that hopefully will recover in a few weeks rather that far worse suspected stroke with similar symptoms. Lucky for me I suppose. Being off work, I decided to carry on trading like the wrestler in the podcast 166, nothing will get in my way. After all I am learning and only risking 0.3% per trade and in the end not too much damage done. Here are my results for the 14 weeks.
And finally a quote from Mr Rob Booker
He’s not actually commenting on my trading or this blog, but it’s nice to think he did.
Each trade in the last 14 weeks has been recorded on my 11th April+ journal on the menu bar, with before and after screenshots and all notes written up on them with microsoft paint. I’ve got a very rough plan on my plan page which I will continue to review. I’ve kept up with my daily range analysis on the ranges page and am going to introduce a new longer term analysis page to see if any of my ideas work out. It’s all here to see, warts an all, and I don’t give a shit what others think, as very few want to read the blog of a losing / aspiring trader anyhow.
See ya. I’m outta here.
A few years ago when I first moved to Derby, I was living in a terraced cottage next door to a mildly strange, middle aged couple. He was a strong, squat, bull looking Italian featured man and she was a dumpy, red faced, little lady, who dressed in old fashioned, floral dresses and thick nylon stockings. Once or twice a year, they would get a bit frisky in the bedroom and their bed headboard would crash thunderously against the party wall adjacent to our bedroom, for about half hour or so, in steady,’ pile driver like’ succession. On one of these occasions, the morning after the rutting, we had a knock on the door and to our surprise it was the lady next door. She had come around to complain about the noise we were keeping late last evening. It was a very strange, surreal moment, and we actually found ourselves apologising to her, for the noise, even though it was her and her lusty husband who had caused it. She must have been highly embarrassed and was trying to make us think that it wasn’t her, by blaming us, even though she knew it wasn’t us and knew we must have known it too !!!!
Why have I mentioned this? Well as the Brexit vote gets closer, the ‘Remain’ camp have spent most of their campaign shouting out extremely outrageous claims about what will happen within the economy if the ‘Leave’ campaign wins. Like massive increases in unemployment, defence cuts, property crashes, more austerity, pensions collapse etc. Well exaggerated, over the top stuff. Even some of the ‘Remains’ own side had to come out and say that these outrageous claims could actually damage their campaign. So what did the ‘Remain’ camp do? The decided to try and deflect the attention from their own outrageous claims, by starting to accuse the Leavers of making the same sort of claims themselves. The Remains suggested that the National Health Service would be far worse off and could collapse, which is a very strange claim to make, given the NHS is not a business that makes anything from the extra supply of EU patients it has to deal with, it is a free service paid by the British tax payer. This may have been part cause of the recent surge in the Leave vote, if you believe the stats being poured out from the internet and telephone polls. There is another possibility for the increase in vote, which is more conspiracy theory like. It is that the Remain camp have fixed some of the polls, so it looks like a leave vote could win, to frighten and panic voters who aren’t sure, into registering to vote against, which would explain the massive increase in numbers registering and the government, mostly Remain camp’s decision to extend the date of registration!
It does appear that both sides are trying to convince voters with the ‘Fear of Loss’ argument rather than the ‘Want for Gain’ especially the Remain camp and it could be their undoing. I’m a Brexit supporter, but am still far from convinced it will happen, as the ‘Fear of Loss’ is a powerful negative incentive in the world of politics, as it is in the markets, especially when people start to panic, just the conditions the Remainers are trying to create. They are trying to orchestrate the conditions for the political equivalent of a market crash and are slowly winding up, to their finale of mass panic, to peak on June 23rd.
So here’s my attempt to play them at their own game.
Because if you do.
Stop press. Update 15 june 08:14, BMGReasearch poll admitted as a hoax the leave campaign was ahead in latest poll. You may think it was the leavers who did this, but they would be shooting themselves in the foot. Me thinks conspiracy theory not far off the mark.
Given that most of the material on this blog is either plagiarised, with a few anecdotes from myself added, or it is fully copied and pasted, with myself trying to fill in the gaps with a pithy comment or two. Where is the creativity in that? This is probably the reason why my typical daily viewing figures are something like this;
Yes, unless you can call copying and pasting an art form, then my creativity is zilch! Which is why I am working on it by practising progressive relaxation techniques and going into trance. I’m getting into the routine of taking half hour out between my London and New York sessions, to listen to Adam Grimes and Glen Harold recordings, that send me into a deep trance, with the intention of establishing a link to any inner creativity locked away. The Adam Grimes sessions are taken from his FREE course ”The Art and Science of Trading,” adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/the-course/ If anyone is interested in the trance audios, I suggest you enroll on the course, then start by listening to the psychology sections beginning with TAAS 2.3 before downloading the first relaxation audio, then progress to TAAS 3.4 before downloading the first trance session audio and move on from there. This sort of training is used for enhanced learning skills and the main reason is for my trading, with the side effect to improve my blog. As an alternative, to separate the days, I’ve purchased a really good dvd and cd set of hypnotic trance sessions by Glen Harold. See pic below.
Ok whilst I’m waiting for my creativity to kick in, I thought I would see what I could learn from the recent success of the underdogs or rather the ”Foxes” Leicester City in the English premier football league.( Soccer to my US reader.) Yes England is the home to Real football, which still takes place a stones throw from me at Ashbourne every Shrovetide. Well worth a trip if you’re ever in the vicinity, but do go on the first day, not the second. The second day is where old grudges are settled and new ones started by the country hard cases and knuckle fighting men.
I digress. Back to the new Premier league champions in full copying and pasting style.
That’s forex trading. The odds are stacked against us.
All us forex losers and inconsistent winners are mocked by the naysayers every day.
We spend our time searching for the winning mentality that will spark a change.
We look to improvement over a long time period, it can’t be done quickly.
Yes we grind those pips out. 1 today, 5 the next, each day we do what it takes.
When we win we treat ourselves to a doughnut!
And a pizza!
Not clever enough for Wall St or The City.
No money for the big trades.
Maybe we don’t need it!
Kim Kardashian vs Donald Trump
And lastly a little spiritual help doesn’t go amiss.
Right the end of the post is nigh. I’m now going to share with you some interesting viewing figures for my blog in recent days maybe my creative link has already been tapped into! One day a week a go I did rather well in my viewing figures. Have a looksee at the chart below.
Of course it may just be someone I have plagiarised, sending me a message!!
Just received an email from ‘Little John’ of www.forextraderoom.co.uk titled, ”Do trading losses effect you mentally?” Little John who’s ex partner ‘Robin Hood’ left his merry trading education business over a year ago, has now set up his own group of merry traders. His email sparked an idea in my mind for an article myself. After all the biggest problem in any form of trading or other risk taking venture is losing and especially the losing run where confidence is seriously eroded. I’ve not tried any of Little John’s or Robin Hoods services but often heard good reports by the way.
Lets get to the bit about confidence which obviously builds up after a series of winning trades (could be a case of fooled by randomness), but only really kicks in after seeing consistent returns over a series of many trades. We need absolute confidence that we have an edge and also in our ability to trade it, to be able to hold our nerve and stay in control, so we don’t reach a tipping point of despair and frustration, then start breaking rules, overtrading, dreaming, gambling, hoping. So how do we get there? We all have heard about discipline, patience and control, but it’s not that easy to achieve.
Now I want you to read this short extract from the very excellent gambling book ‘Winning Without Thinking’, by Nick Mordin. Chapter 10. are you trying to please your mother?www.amazon.co.uk/Winning-without-Thinking-Definitive-Betting/dp/1904328008?ie=UTF8&keywords=winning%20without%20thinking&qid=1460380204&ref_=sr_1_2&sr=8-2
Similar problem, different game. Just because we call ourselves traders, doesn’t mean that we aren’t gamblers. It’s just another form of risk taking. We just need an edge to play.
Now for another professional gambler taken straight from the works of behavioural psychologist Dr Howard Sartin
www.sartinmethodology.com/pubs/PsychologyOfWinningPMTR.pdf read this short extract.
Similar stuff we read about in trading books, yes?
Now Sartin had a pretty maverick way of treating compulsive gamblers. Commissioned by the State of California to work in a therapeutic setting with 36 truck drivers convicted of gambling related felonies or misdemeanors, he decided on an alternative to the usual, ”Sit in a circle and admit you have a problem,” type therapy. Instead he came to the conclusion that none of the 36 were either truly compulsive or pathological and that they were just all losers at gambling and life itself. Only their personal low at being convicted, had caused them to seek help to change, otherwise it was off for a two way stretch in jail.
” They were losers, pure and simple. My thesis was – and is: the cure for losing is winning!
So began his study of losers for which he came up with an alternative Three R’s, as a way of re-education. Reality, Responsibility and Record Keeping.
Reality means exploring the myths that dominate ”horseplayer” thinking, such as fixed races, jockeys who stiff your horse on purpose, the undue influence of trainers, track maintenance designed to prevent the front ”speed” horse from winning, or the opposite etc, etc. ”Such Myths flourish because most human egos are so fragile that they will not accept the notion, that the outcome of any event is not controllable by man. When all other rationalisations fail, the loser will lay the blame at heaven’s doorstep. Losers refuse to accept the reality that the horse runs the race and that accurate recognition of running patterns, class and conditions, produce the winning horse in the vast majority of races.”
Responsibility he emphasised that you are alone responsible for your selection and wagering decisions. After every race, how often do you hear those mournful cries of, ”I knew that horse was going to win!” I woulda, coulda, shoulda. Never taking responsibility for self.
Record Keeping. In serving thousands of horseplayers it was found that very few kept any written records of their selections or wagers. It was found that all consistent winners maintained copious notes.
Ok well more stuff on a parallel with trading. The point is that after working with his criminal patients on how to win more often, most of them actually did learn to win, even if only on a very small scale. Of course the square heads in charge of his appointment by the State of California, on discovering his controversial non-politically correct methods, soon cut short his contract.
Now for me this is the interesting bit about his Win Therapy. Part of the method of wagering was that they had to select more that one horse in a race. The reason was when you bet on more than one horse you dramatically increase the odds of a successful wager. It is the losing run that most greatly effects the losers mental strength. In trading a way to increase your win ratio would be to reduce your take profit and increase your stop loss, exactly the opposite of the ”let your winners run and cut off your losers short” message we are always told. An interesting advocate of this sort of play is Boris Schlosberg. Here’s an extract from a post last year titled. ”How Yogi Berra taught me to win 95%of the time.”
Here’s the full article www.forexlive.com/!/how-yogi-berra-taught-me-to-win-95-of-the-time-00-20150926
Another trader I follow who boasts a 93% win rate is Allen Bary at www.wallstreet2easystreet.com/ He trades a scalping method with a stop of about 10 pips and targets at 3 ,6 and 9. He trades within the volatility range on the tick chart he uses, in the direction of pressure, between points on the chart of near term support and resistance, where likely supply and demand is found. He uses Time and Sales and Bob Volman type entry set ups and is very consistent.
Another thing to do with the effects of losing is to cut the risk % on each trade, it is what Rob Booker keeps banging on about for survival in this game. thebookerreport.com
Shonn Campbell at www.fxinventorytrading.com is a prime example of a trader who trades tiny, then adds to the trade within certain limits of chart structure if it goes against him building a position. I don’t know what his targets and stops are like but this method means he is likely to hit out with the occasional big loss but many more good trades.
One of my favourite blogs to follow is that of robot trader Scott Welsh tfl365.com/scott/ He often uses his trading results for analysis to make improvements to his systems and I once heard him stand up at a trader conference and say, ”it doesn’t matter if your targets are less than your stops, in fact often it is the better bet.” Here is the link to the conferences if you haven’t seen it before You can watch the recent Rob Booker live seminars here . I have put it up before and you will have to wade through to find Scott’s contribution.
Losing runs are the bane of the risk taker and just to show in numbers, what we’re up against, here’s a link to an interesting losing streak calculator www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/
I’m off now for some Ale in ”The Peacock”and a Friar Tuck Chip Butty from the chippy on’t corner. Here’s the Peacock.
And for those of you interested I’ll finish with the email from Little John.
Hi Everyone Just thought Id write an email after last weeks trading to see if people can cope and manage their losing trades correctly. Do you have a set risk reward setup, calculate your trades correctly so you not always just entering at 0.1, 0.5 or 1.0 or whatever size you trade. Do you calculate the size of your account and work out what lot size you should be trading based on your stop loss, risk amount and account balance. If your not then you really should be. People ask for a win/loss ratio on trades and this really does not matter or have any influence on how much money/percentage return you make each month and year. You can actually lose almost 60% of your trades and still make an excellent return each and every month. So I just want to remind all you traders, make sure you have a plan and stick to it DO NOT deviate from this. Working this way means as you have a few losing trades your risking a % of your lower account balance each time, and as the winners come and the account grows your risking a % of the larger account and this is what allows it to grow. So stop thinking about how many losing trades you have, simply make sure that your risk reward is correct and if you can get anything above 50/50 then you will guarantee to make money and a good living if you can do this consistently. Next I want to look over a couple of charts that you may want to look at yourselves and also show the kind of thing we look at every time in our webinars to plan our next few trades in the week ahead. Also dont just enter a trade because price has hit a certain area, get some confirmation of price action 1st, this will save you entering and guessing of just anticipation, this is not trading but simply gambling if no predetermined risk. EUR/USD http://clip2net.com/s/3wJvUc1 weekly view AUD/USD http://clip2net.com/s/3wJxgvT daily view GBP/USD http://clip2net.com/s/3wJzf7p daily view GBP/AUD http://clip2net.com/s/3wJBe2e daily view Do you look this deeply into your trades before entering them? Do you then calculate your risk reward ratio? Then calculate what size you should be trading on your account size and what risk you should risk on each trade? If you are not doing these things then your going to get swallowed up in the forex world and find it very tough to make money trading these highly volatile markets. If this is something you would be interested in, not going for 20-30 or 40% a month, but trading exactly how money managers and funds trade looking for great reward trades and making 4-10% a month (10% on good months – not often) so achieving apprx 50-60% a year entering trades 10-15 minutes a day then we can offer that here at www.forextraderoom.co.uk Wish you all a Happy Trading week and should you have any questions please email or skype me with the details below :- skype – chrish9070 email – firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com Regards Little John
and Regards from fxoutlier also.
I wouldn’t know what young people talk about these days when they get together, but in my age group 50+ conversations often centre around the issues of the day like Brexit, the price of a sack of coal and bowel problems. Not having one of those modern gadgets that youngsters are into, called a ‘television,’ I haven’t been able to keep up with the news on the campaigning for or against Brexit, although I keep hearing trading advisers talking about a GBP crash looming as the exit fears grow. Short the GBP against the safe haven CHF is being touted. I’m all for Brexit myself, however I can’t see it happening. The fear of the unknown, better the devil you know, will likely overcome the voters emotions in the end and they will put aside the issues of mass immigration and EU bureaucracy for short term safety, unless of course events such as terrorism get closer to home to swing the fear factor the other way. Now take a looksee at this chart.
Forget about what’s happened already to Cable on Brexit fears. Look at Oanda’s new advanced charting package free with an account. It looks remarkably like tradingview to me. YES,YES,YES! Ok no tick charts yet but who cares and loads of improvements to come apparently. I’ve just received a free £25 gift voucher for Amazon from Oanda for having completed a customer survey where I complained about a lack of charting facilities and a week later a new advanced charting package is launched. I do hope they get rid of the big Oanda logo bottom left though. I think my free Ninja demo platform can be confined to the dustbin now. Only just got this so haven’t really had a good look, but maybe I’ll be looking to go long cable down at 1.3294 closer to the referendum in complete opposition to the well informed views.
I’ve just bought one of those other modern gadgets a Samsung 7”tablet and have just joined Kindle unlimited, which means all those expensive trading books for £7.99 a month. And yes, I know like most Hollywood movies most trading books are crap, but also like the fore-mentioned you do get the odd gem. I still haven’t joined up with fxsanalytics.com just yet because after completing all the nobrainer trade stuff, I’m doing some reading on fundamentals, intermarket analysis and volume which along side price action play a big part in their modus operandi. They sound like a bunch of clever buggers at fxsanlytics, so I don’t want to appear a complete dumb ass when I start. Just read Anna Couling’s ‘Volume Price Analysis.’ A few too many analogies and a bit too much of the insider/marketmaker conspiracy stuff for my liking, but interesting views on volume and based on the works of Dow, Wyckoff, Livermore and Ney. Does raise more questions in my mind than it answers. Not a lot on fundamental guidance out there, but presently reading Anna Couling’s second book, ‘A Three Dimensional Approach to Forex Trading,’ which has a the fundamentals covered. I don’t know about the legitimacy of Anna Couling, but I’ve got to start somewhere.Hit a few short ebook fundamental books before this and also started ‘George Soros’s ‘Alchemy of Finance.’ There’s an updated Kathy Lien book ‘Day and Swing Trading the Currency Market’ I also want.
A now for some more elderly gentleman conversation. Ladies and the young you need to skip this next part.
Not quite a bowel problem and not a quite a sack of coal but close to the bowel region and a different sort of sack. I was in hospital yesterday having my left testicle examined which has swollen to quite a size. The product of a life of manual work, obesity and general wear and tear. Fluid on the tetis has been diagnosed and needs draining along with some varicose veins adjusting. A straight forward procedure I’m assured, with maybe some time off work. YES YES YES! Normally I would discuss my ageing medical problems with the lads in work, where upon, they would laugh at me, take the piss, and then I could walk away feeling better. However today is Good Friday and I’m not in work all over the Easter holidays, so I have burdened you with my problems. Any continuing discussion in the comments section please.
That’s it. I’m outta here.
”People’s zeal for battle increases in direct proportion to their distance from the front line.”
Chief Leabua Jonathon (a former Prime Minister of Lethoso ).
I’ve been away from the trading front line for a couple of months and from blogging for a lot longer, however my zeal has not diminished. My blogging is about my attempt to put it all together and often that is helped by the input from other like minded souls trying the same as me. Thanks for all the comments received to my articles last year and to the small dwindling number of blog followers. The thing is though, I’ve recently withdrawn from everything, not listening to the traders podcast, following blogs and commenting on other’s journeys and have been hiding in my cave, spending time in the wilderness, so to speak.
”Traders talk amongst themselves, not necessarily to discuss bullish or bearish market opinions, but rather to share insights into the nature and quirkiness of this business. The mental toll trading exacts definitely forms bonds. When we open up it is always surprising to discover the similarity of lessons learned, experiences shared, and how we all independently arrive at the same conclusions. Often in talking with each other we’re really looking for clues into our own heads, hoping to understand ourselves a little better.”
from ”Street Smarts,” by Laurence A. Connors, Linda Bradford Raschke.
I think this is why I always like listening to Shonn and Matt discussing trading like this old edition of thetraderspodcast Ep 179 – Shonn & Matt at The Cigar Shop or, MoneyShow.com: TRADER TALK PODCAST – The Magical … They also appeared on a recent video on Chris Pulver’s website rhino-trader, but I don’t know what’s happened there, as the site has vanished from existence.
2015 Was a frustrating year in one sense, but a massive learning experience in another. I started off by trying to trade swings off longer term support and resistance and entering using the Bob Volman tick-chart set-ups, from his books. I was edging my account very slowly upwards, but to improve had decided to try and emulate Matt LaCoco (without really understanding the way he trades), by getting my stop to break even as quick as I could and waiting for the trades that just flew away into profit. Took a number of stop outs, many almost to the pip, some only by the spread and got frustrated, boiled over and overtraded. My profits vanished and I ended up on a loss. I then decided to split each trade into two. First half profit would be taken as a scalp which would allow my stop on the second to stay the same number of pips behind my entry for an overall break-even. I started to make progress again if rather slowly. Then I lost my free Ninjatrader platform and continued to trade whilst getting frustrated with several attempts at using different platforms. My mind wasn’t on the trading and I ended up boiling over again into overtrade mode, losing all the gains I had made and more. Decided to take a break after the damage was done to do some reading and a few courses. Took a month to train with Kim Krompass and entered about 180 trades using my own version of her methods. I must have hit the worst 2 weeks in Kim’s year for trading her methods with little follow-through in her range breakouts and clear directional move pullbacks which started me off on a downer (it wasn’t just me this time) but started clawing most of those losses back in the second two weeks. Her monthly fee’s are rather expensive at $197/month, so I could only take a month, but got the gist of most of what she does, if not the experience of putting it all together.
2016 Where do I go from here? Well each time I boiled over last year, I was either adding something new to the way I traded, or my mind was attempting to do something else at the same time, so I will be watching out for those occasions again, to stop or reduce my exposure before I do the damage. Recently I’ve been hitting more books and courses and pdf’s and making a plan and trying to simplify my plan and now I’m testing and re-evaluating my plan. This will take me much longer than I first thought. It’s almost like I’ve returned full circle back to where I started. I’ve been mainly been re-reading old stuff and re-doing old courses that resonated in the past with how I want to go. Check out this short article from fxtcmagazine.com about trader Matt LaCoco for an idea where I’m trying to get to. <Matt LaCoco – Continue Reading>
”Even though we present many different patterns, you only need ONE strategy to be prosperous. Some of the best traders are successful because they trade only one strategy. Hopefully, all of the patterns in the manual will increase your awareness of certain market idiosyncrasies and will serve as a confirmation of your own market observation.”
from ”Street Smarts,” by Laurence A. Connors, Linda Bradford Raschke. This book I haven’t read before and is my present read.
Just finished another book, ”Profitable day and swing trading,” by Harry Boxer. (Not recommending this one as the trading charts in this are so tiny and on a black background they are almost useless.) Still I did enjoy the last chapter 17, ”38 Steps to becoming a successful trader,” which I wanted to print out here as it’s only a couple of pages long, but Wiley refused me permission. So sorry for this shortened post, but I just needed to dip my toe into the blog again, to get things going and rekindle my enthusiasm for waffling on about my thoughts and directions. Hopefully I will be heading a new post later in the year, ” The Ubiquitous Fxoutlier,” although by that time you will probably be hiding in your own cave and will be going your own way.
I’m outta here.
See you soon.